I have been in the travel industry for 28 years and I have lived many different epidemics (SARS, H1N1, Zika, etc..), life-changing events like 11S or 11M and many terrorist attacks that have been taking place for years in tourist destinations. And what I have learned is that it always happens the same: At the beginning, Politicians do not pay enough attention to the problem and minimize it, until it is too late; and once we are in the middle of the problem, there is the terrible habit of embracing catastrophic visions. But fortunately, nothing last forever and the memory of the traveller is really short-term, so when hopefully in 3 months in most of the developed countries the situation of COVID19 is controlled like it is beginning to happen in China, South Corea or Singapur now, the travellers will begin to travel again, mainly domestic and some short-haul destinations in their area, in the beginning, and the wheel will begin to round again.
On the other hand, the travel industry is extremely seasonal, with 4 months accounting for more than 80 per cent of the yearly revenue, so July to September is key, not February to June. The real disaster will be that the negligence of the Authorities provokes that the crisis is not controlled by then in some tourism relevant outgoing countries as USA, Canada, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain or Scandinavia.
Thus the Travel Industry should be patient and be ready and have in mind that there will substantial changes in all the traveller’s experience and they should be prepared for them. In the following posts, I will try to highlight some of those trends.
